Netflix Set to Crown New No. 1 Movie, But Polymarket Sees No Clear Winner

There’s going to be a new movie at the top of the Netflix charts this week — and for once, the predictions market didn’t see it coming.

Last week’s No. 1 movie, Little Brother, is likely going to see its seat vacated when Netflix updates its list of Top 10 movies in the US for the week of July 6-12 on Tuesday. The question is, by what?

Polymarket traders see no clear winner between movies like Hamnet, Enola Holmes 3, Retribution, Voicemails for Isabelle and Little Brother. The problem may lie in the fact that Polymarket’s spread does not include a couple titles that FlixPatrol, which tracks streaming data, shows as trending movies on Netflix.

The first title missing from the Polymarket spread is Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea. The documentary about the wreck of the 2012 Costa Concordia features never-before-seen footage and survivor accounts of the wreck of the luxury cruise and the disaster that followed, which killed 32 people. It premiered Saturday, July 11 to Netflix’s No. 1 spot and hasn’t budged in the days since.

Another movie that FlixPatrol shows as trending on the charts is Old Henry, a 2021 action movie starring Tim Blake Nelson as a widowed farmer who takes in a mysterious injured man with a satchel of cash. When a posse of men claiming to be the law come for the money, the farmer must decide who to trust. According to FlixPatrol, Old Henry has been ranked at No. 1 or No. 2 for the past week, giving it a good shot at the No. 1 overall ranking.

Polymarket bettors likely know better than to bet big on any other movies, as their leader of the scenario betting on the top movie of the week is currently Hamnet, but at lowly 5% odds. Polymarket bettors give Enola Holmes 3 a 1% chance, as well as Retribution, Voicemails for Isabelle (another former No. 1) and Little Brother.

Last week’s No. 1 movie, Little Brother, doesn’t even register on FlixPatrol’s list of Netflix’s top 10 movies in the country, meaning it experienced a pretty steep falloff following its premiere and top ranking.

Netflix will likely reveal its Top 10 movies in the country for the week of July 6-12 Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET.

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