Polymarket Traders Say Mercedes’ F1 Winning Streak Ends at Monaco

The biggest event of the Formula 1 season, the Monaco Grand Prix, takes place this weekend. Mercedes drivers have dominated this season, but Polymarket traders see a different outcome.

The current favorite to win the Monaco Grand Prix is Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc, who just signed a multi-year extension reportedly taking him through 2028. Traders give Leclerc a 34% to win at his home circuit.

The Ferrari driver previously won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2024 after leading all 78 laps in the No. 16.

Kimi Antonelli, who leads F1 with four wins this season, enters the weekend second behind Leclerc with a 17% chance to win.

Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, a seven-time champion, is third at 16%. He is a three-time winner of the Monaco Grand Prix. Mercedes driver George Russell, the only other person to win this season, is fourth at 13%.

The list also includes defending champion Lando Norris of McLaren at 11% and four-time champion Max Verstappen of Red Bull at 8%. Norris won this Grand Prix last season while Verstappen won in 2021 and 2023.

But while the traders view the Ferrari camp as the favorite to win the prestigious Grand Prix, one driver pushes back.

“I’m not listening to any of the hype,” Hamilton said, per the F1 website. “I’m just trying to take the learnings from each weekend and try to move forwards. I think really that’s what we’re focused on this weekend.

“There are no certainties in F1. (The podium finish in Canada) didn’t leave us with any certainties. There were things that we learnt, things that we can do better and things we try to take the positives and move them forwards.”

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