Who Will Win and Should Win at the 2018 Oscars

The 90th Academy Awards are Sunday, meaning there are just a few days left to figure out who you should pick in Oscars office pools. The ceremony will honor the best in film from 2017.

The titles of some of the most popular films of last year – like Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Wonder Woman, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Spider-Man: Homecoming – will not be heard often during the ceremony.

None of the top 10 highest-grossing films are in this year’s Best Picture field and only two are picked from the top 20. The 14th-highest grossing film of the year, Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk is the highest-grossing Best Picture nominee, with $188.04 million. Jordan Peele’s acclaimed directing debut, Get Out, was close behind with $176.04 million.

This year, the Oscar race for Best Picture is down to two great films, Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Guillermo Del Toro’s The Shape of Water. Get Out could be the big spoiler, and there are six other films hoping to take home the top prize.

Here’s a look at who will win and who should win in the top categories at the 90th Oscars.

Photo credit: Facebook/ Fox Searchlight

Technical Categories

Some of the technical categories can be tough for even some Oscar voters. Here is who should be taking home statuettes:

Best Visual Effects – Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 had some awe-inspiring effects and was a big crowd-pleaser. The Marvel Cinematic Universe does not have much success at the Oscars, and this is where the Academy could fix that.

Best Costume Design – Since Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread is actually about costume design, this seems like a safe bet. Period films usually do well in this category, and all the nominees fit that bill.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Darkest Hour will run away with this, as it should. Kazuhiro Tsuji came out of retirement just to turn Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, and he did an amazing job.

Best Production Design – This looks like a win for The Shape of Water, which already won the Art Directors Guild Award and Production Design at the BAFTAs.

Best Sound Editing & Mixing – These two awards can get confusing, but Blade Runner 2049 already won a Sound Editing Award at the Motion Picture Sound Editors’ Golden Reel Awards.

Best Cinematography – This is an award that should go to Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049. It will not just be a lifetime achievement honor though, since his work on the film was some of the best of his career.

Best Film Editing

The Best Editing award is surprisingly one of the big tells for an eventual Best Picture winner. The only modern Best Picture winners without an editing nomination are Ordinary People (1980) and Birdman (2014). A Best Picture winner does not have to actually win the award (in fact, no Best Picture winner has won since 2012’s Argo), but it goes a long way.

Expect there to be another split here. I, Tonya, which was not nominated for Best Picture, has been a frontrunner here, which should not be a surprise for anyone who has seen the kinetic, skillful job Tatiana S. Riegel did. I, Tonya should – and will – win.

Will Win: I, Tonya

Should Win: I, Tonya

Best Original Song and Score

It is about time Jonny Greenwood finally win a score for a Paul Thomas Anderson film, and his score for Phantom Thread is an integral part of the movie. However, if there is some unexpected love for The Shape of Water, expect Alexandre Desplat to steal it from Greenwood.

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Phantom Thread

On the Original Song side, “Let It Go” writers Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez look poised to win again for Coco‘s “Remember Me,” but Sufjan Stevens’ Call Me By Your Name song “Mystery of Love” would be a more adventurous winner.

Will Win: Coco

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Short Films

The short films can be difficult to pick, as the short programs are often only screened in limited theaters.

For the animated films, Lou is the most widely seen, since it played before Pixar’s Cars 3. It’s a charming film, but not one of Pixar’s best shorts. The French film Garden Party has won several festival awards, although the British production Revolting Rhymes might win over some Oscar voters. It is an inventive film based on stories written by Roald Dahl.

DeKalb Elementary is a film about a school shooting, making it a timely effort from filmmaker Reed Van Dyk. Expect it to win Best Live Action Short Film.

The Best Documentary Subject field features a couple of films on important subjects, like the opioid epidemic in Netflix’s Heroin(e), and a white police officer’s arrest of a black teacher in Austin, Texas in HBO’s Traffic Stop. But the uniquely titled Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, which centers on artist Mindy Alper, might just attract enough Los Angeles-based voters to win.

Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Animated Feature

The animated feature winner is easy to pick. Pixar’s Coco will win, keeping Disney and Pixar’s streak alive. The last time a non-Disney film won was back in 2011, when Gore Verbinski’s Rango won. Loving Vincent would be a cool film to award, as it brought Vincent Van Gogh’s work to life.

Some years have very easy Foreign Language Film winners, but this year is a bit difficult. In The Fade, which won the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language film was not even nominated for an Oscar. Swedish director Ruben Ostlund’s The Square won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, but A Fantastic Woman, by Chilean director Sebastian Lelio is the frontrunner. Star Daniela Vega will be the first transgender person to present an Oscar.

Legendary French filmmaker Agnes Varda earned her first competitive Oscar nomination at age 89 for the Documentary Feature Faces Places, which chronicles her trip through rural France with 35-year-old artist JR. This should win, but Icarus has also won several awards. Bryan Fogel’s film follows the Russian doping scandal.

Original and Adapted Screenplay

The Best Adapted Screenplay award should and will go to 89-year-old James Ivory, the legendary director behind Howards End and The Remains Of The Day. Ivory adaped Andre Aciman’s novel Call Me By Your Name, turning it into an elegant, beautiful film. However, it would be very cool for Logan to win. The film is the first comic book movie nominated for its screenplay.

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

On the Original side, The Big Sick would be a unique winner and should be considered. Get Out director Jordan Peele came up with a unique horror film that acts as a reflection of today’s world, creating something that is the very definition of “original.” However, Three Billboards is going to win here. Del Toro will not go home empty handed though.

Will Win: Three Billboards

Should Win: Get Out

Best Director

This is where Guillermo Del Toro will win. It has been a long time since the Best Director field has been this stacked with a mix of acclaimed auteurs and young talent. If any of the other nominees have a shot at spoiling Del Toro’s night, it’s Christopher Nolan who directed the hell out of Dunkirk. But in this writer’s opinion, Paul Thomas Anderson should win for Phantom Thread.

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Unfortunately, the acting categories this year are way too easy to predict. Allison Janney, who played Tonya Harding’s mother in I, Tonya, has been winning Best Supporting Actress awards left and right. There’s no sign that the vastly superior performance given by Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird can stop Janney.

Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

The Best Supporting Actor statue should be going to The Shape of Water‘s Richard Jenkins for his touching and heartbreaking performance as the only person Elisa (Sally Hawkins) has to talk to outside of work. But like Janney, Three Billboards‘ Sam Rockwell has been winning awards all season and that’s not going to stop here.

Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Should Win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Best Actor and Actress

There is no reason to suspect Gary Oldman will stumble at the finish line here. His performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour was fantastic, although completely hidden under the make-up. Call Me By Your Name‘s Timothee Chalamet should win for an arresting performance. That picture would not be the same without him.

Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Frances McDormand earned an Oscar more than two decades ago for Fargo, but she is going to finally win her second for Three Billboards. It’s hard to beat that incredible, deadpan performance, but there are three other great nominees who have never won an Oscar before. Saoirse Ronan is going to win one someday, but this is Margot Robbie’s shot. If anyone from I, Tonya deserves to win an Oscar, it’s her.

Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

Should Win: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Picture

In some parallel universe, this would be a race between Get Out and Lady Bird, but this is where we’re at. The big award of the night is unfortunately down to Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.

McDonagh’s lack of a Best Director nomination does not seem to be hurting Three Billboards‘ chances, especially after Ben Affleck’s Argo won a few years ago without one. Plus, the movie is much better written than directed.

While Get Out should win, the remaining older Oscar voters are not going to see it as an Oscar-worthy movie. Dunkirk could be seen as a legit dark horse, but its lack of a screenplay nomination should cross it out. The same goes for Spielberg’s The Post.

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Get Out