Polymarket Predicts New Netflix Movie Will Oust Hit Documentary From No. 1 Spot

Will a new movie sit at the top of Netflix’s charts this week?

The streamer is set to reveal the Top 10 movies in the United States for the past week (July 20-26) Tuesday afternoon. Last week’s No. 1 movie, Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, has enjoyed two consecutive weeks as the most-watched movie, but it appears it’s in danger of losing its spot — to another documentary, nonetheless.

Polymarket traders are betting big that Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea will be dethroned from the No. 1 spot by A Toxic Love Story, a true-crime documentary detailing the bizarre real-life case of Michelle Hadley, a woman wrongfully jailed after being framed by her ex-fiancé and his new wife.

In fact, Polymarket bettors are so sure that the movie will rise to the top of the charts that they’ve given it overwhelming 98% odds of being named the No. 1 movie of the week. Other movies on the market’s spread include 72 Hours, which currently has only 2% odds of being named No. 1, as well as Wicked: For Good and last week’s favorite, Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, both of which sit with less than 1% odds.

FlixPatrol, which tracks streaming data, shows 72 Hours, a new Netflix original movie starring Kevin Hart, sitting at the No. 1 Netflix spot since its premiere on Friday, July 24. That could potentially throw a wrench in Polymarket’s prediction for A Toxic Love Story, which premiered the same day as 72 Hours. FlixPatrol shows Love Story premiering to No. 1 on Friday, then slipping slightly to No. 2 for the rest of the weekend, which might not be enough to be named the most-streamed movie of the week.

Will Polymarket get it right, or will 72 Hours be named the No. 1 Netflix movie? The streamer will likely reveal its Top 10 list Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET.

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