Polymarket Believes ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Will Take Massive Box Office Title

If you’re of the belief that the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) Spider-Man title, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, will be a massive box office success, you’re not alone.

In fact, you’re very much in the majority of bettors who are predicting that Spidey will continue to hold onto its lead as the year’s highest-grossing movie.

Polymarket bettors currently view Spider-Man: Brand New Day as having a 93% chance of finishing 2026 in the box office’s top spot. The trading site notes rules of the wagers by saying in part: This market is about the movie’s domestic calendar gross in 2026 – dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie’s gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

Following Spider-Man: Brand New Day among bettors is Avengers: Doomsday (7%) and a number of movies, such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Dune: Messiah, that have all received less than 1% of bets.

Make no mistake, this is a two-movie race between Spider-Man: Brand New Day – released in late July, and Avengers: Doomsday, which is slated for a mid-December release. Based on the late release date, the newest Avengers movie would need two weeks of historic, record-breaking numbers to outpace Spider-Man at the box office, which will have had a nearly five-month head start.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

That said, if you’ve already placed your bet on Peter Parker and friends, things are looking good. The movie, which stars real-life husband and wife Tom Holland and Zendaya, is already the highest-grossing film of the year, having brought in more than $2 billion thus far, which includes better than $360 million during its opening weekend. Brand New Day was the second-fastest movie all-time to reach $1 billion at the box office, doing so in just six days. Only Avengers: Endgame topped that pace.

Normally the newest Avengers installment would make a serious push to top Spider-Man for year’s highest-grossing film, but it’s end-of-year release seems like too big an obstacle to overcome.

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