What Traders Think Costco Will Do With Its Hot Dog Price

Less than three weeks from the day on which hot dogs take center stage — the Fourth of July — there is debate over what superstore Costco will do to the price of their dogs.

More specifically, the market is questioning Costco’s in-store cost of a hot dog and 20oz. soda, which currently sets members back only $1.50. And the soda itself is of the refillable variety.

Costco’s $1.50 dog is a quarter-pound of all beef served plain with condiments and toppings of ketchup, mustard, relish and onion nearby at all food court locations.

Up, down, stay the same? That’s the question as grills ready themselves for summer’s biggest bash. As of Monday, those on Polymarket see Costco staying put.  A price increase to the iconic Costco combo currently sees a “yes” trading at only 10% on Polymarket. 90% see the price staying the same. The current trading numbers are aiming well past the day when Joey Chestnut consumes as many hot dogs as entire neighborhoods do on the Fourth of July.

Polymarket will resolve to “Yes” if the price (before tax) exceeds $1.50 at any U.S.-based Costco store by 11:59pm ET on December 31, 2026. Yet, with six months remaining, most traders see the price remaining unchanged.

Thus far, that’s probably a safe bet. Costco hasn’t changed the price of the hot dog and soda combo since the 1980s. Though the price has gone unchanged for decades, a few subtle changes have found their way into Costco’s famous combo: This spring, Costco began offering an option to replace their 20oz. soda with a 16.9oz. Kirkland bottled water instead. And in April of 2025 Costco switched from Pepsi products to Coca-Cola. Pepsi had been in the Costco food court since 2013 before the change.

Chew on that. 

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