Second Stimulus Check: What Has Been and What Will Be Resolved in Time for Second Payment

Agree: Need for More Aid

First and foremost, it's worth remembering that both sides agree that the U.S. needs more stimulus in some form to recover from the coronavirus pandemic and its accompanying economic recession. Their disagreements over the form and scope of that financial aid are secondary. There are more and more reports that if the two sides can't agree on one large bill, the Senate and the White House will try to pass smaller packages without the House's input, just to get something out there.

So far, the only whisper of passing no aid at all comes from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who appeared on Bloomberg TV on Friday. The economist said "we can live without" another stimulus check, although even he suggested that some kind of aid would take its place.

Agree: Stimulus Check

It's also good news that all the sides in this debate have agreed to the terms of the stimulus check itself. The versions of the direct payment in both the HEROES Act and the HEALS Act look very similar to the one passed in the CARES Act back in March, with the same income-based eligibility structure. Americans who made $75,000 or less in their last tax filing will get the full $1,200 check, and the amount will decrease incrementally for any amount over that, up to an income of $99,000 per year.

The big difference between the two is the dependent payments — the HEROES Act would provide $1,200 per dependent, with a maximum of three per family, while the HEALS Act would provide $500 per dependent with no limit. However, both bills include adult dependents in those calculations, unlike the CARES Act.

The HEALS Act version seems the most likely to pass, and President Donald Trump has indicated that he will sign it into law as well. First, the other issues in the bill need to get worked out.

Flexible: Unemployment

In August, the emergency enhanced unemployment insurance in the CARES Act seemed to be the big sticking point between the two sides. The House initially said it would not compromise on the amount — $600 per person — but that has changed. While Democrats have not come all the way down to Republicans' proposed $200 per week, they have agreed to drop their price. According to a report by AS English, the final version is likely to include $3000-$400 for unemployment.

Flexible: Budget Compromises

In recent weeks, both sides in the stimulus debate have shown some willingness to compromise on the bill's budget — if slowly and cautiously. White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has said that Republicans could agree to a bill costing $1.3 trillion, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has agreed to drop from $3 trillion all the way to $2.2 trillion. However, she told reporters that she is not going any further, and that Republicans will have to meet her there.

"We have said again and again that we are willing to come down [and] meet them in the middle," she said. "That would be $2.2 trillion. When they're ready to do that, we'll be ready to discuss and negotiate. I did not get that impression on that call."

Disagree: State & Local Funding

One of the biggest gulfs in the two stimulus proposals is the money allocated to state and local governments for coronavirus testing, new safety measures and other pandemic-related funding. The Democrats' bill would provide $915 billion in total for these efforts, while the Republican bill offers just $150 billion.

This is one case where analysts say that both sides are equally far off from the real figure. According to a report by Forbes, the amount really needed is around $500 billion. Getting both sides to agree to such an even compromise should be easy, but it requires them to address the real roots of their stalemate.

Disagree: Overall Budget

While the particulars clearly play a role in this process, the unavoidable fact of these negotiations is that the two bills are at least a trillion dollars apart in scope. Republicans have argued vehemently against spending more than $1 trillion, citing concerns about the rising national debt. On the other hand, with looming crises like mass unemployment, mass evictions and even food insecurity, Democrats do not see this as a time to hold back.

Democrats were criticized for the size of the HEROES Act back in May, as it was over a trillion dollars higher than even the CARES Act back in March. However, analysts have guessed that many provisions there were included as bargaining chips, and now that the House has agreed to $2.2 trillion — the same budget as the CARES Act — the Senate should do the same.

Disagree: Negotiation Approach

Finally, a recent report by Forbes analyst Rob Berger noted the stark difference in approaches by the two sides in this debate. Berger wrote: "Republicans want to evaluate and negotiate each major piece of the stimulus package... In contrast, Democrats want to focus on the top line number. They want to reach agreement on the total cost of the package and then fill in the details later."

The two sides will need to square these disparate strategies before they can make any real progress, as Democrats will not be satisfied with whatever fits into $1 trillion. Stimulus negotiations resume on Tuesday, Sept. 8 in Washington, D.C.