Why Netflix Cancels Shows So Quickly Now

Netflix has become infamous for canceling shows too soon and leaving fans disappointed, but that wasn’t always the case. Some of the earliest Netflix original series had runs at least as long as their cable and broadcast counterparts, and sometimes longer. Now, Netflix’s strategy seems to have changed, and industry insiders are doing their best to understand why.

Netflix started out by primarily licensing material from other studios or rights-holders and streaming it as an extension of its rental business model. The early original series that the company made its name on were shows like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black — which ran for six and seven seasons, respectively. However, as Netflix has expanded its lineup and focused more heavily on original content, it has given that content less and less of a chance to find its footing and prove itself profitable. The heights that a show must reach to get a long renewal are now enormous.

A report by IGN tracks the timing of this shift to around the ending of 2016, when Netflix unceremoniously canceled Marco Polo after two seasons. This shocked fans, since the show’s massive scope and production budget, seemed to imply that it was too great an investment to drop so suddenly. At the time, analysts figured that the budget had become unsustainable for Netflix.

That may still be the case. Netflix draws its revenue from subscriber payments only, so it can’t afford to keep material that not at least sustaining its audience — if not growing it. If subscribers start tuning out of a show a few seasons in, Netflix may not see a profit in producing it any longer.

In fact, Netflix relies heavily on subscriber growth to keep its business model going, at least outwardly. The company uses subscriber growth as an important metric in investor meetings and presentations, and its stock price tanked earlier this year when it revealed that it had missed its subscriber growth goal for quarter 1. Ideally, the company would like an original series to be pulling new subscribers in, not just holding current subscribers’ attention.

For that reason, niche shows like Bloodline, The Get Down, The OA and The Dark Crystal have fallen by the wayside while mainstream hits like Stranger Things and The Crown have persevered. The more fans talk about a series, the more likely it is that new users will show up to get in on the conversation.

Netflix also has more competitors in the streaming arena than ever, and it is up against some heavy-hitters. Disney+, HBO Max, Paramount+ and others can all boast in-house franchises and intellectual property that will hold subscribers’ attention, from the Marvel Cinematic Universe to the growing stall of SpongeBob content. Netflix is trying its best to snap up useful IP as well, including adaptations like The Witcher, The Umbrella Academy, Sweet Tooth and Shadow and Bone. It also has revivals and reboots like The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina.

While Netflix holds its metrics close and does not elaborate on its renewal and cancellation process to the public much, some information has come out here and there. According to a report by Wired, the company relies on “a viewership-versus-cost-of-renewal review process” to determine what to do with a show, “which determines whether the cost of producing another season of a show is proportionate to the number of viewers that the show receives.” The company generally takes data from the first 28 days the show was available, assuming that die-hard fans have had time to watch it by then.

In a way, all studios, networks and cable channels have used similar methods since the invention of TV, but Netflix is able to review this data in detail and in real-time so that its cancellations sometimes seem surprisingly fast and heartbreaking for fans. Unfortunately, the only thing to do about it is to watch your favorite shows when they come out and recommend that your friends do the same.