Polymarket Traders Don’t See ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Topping ‘Spider-Man’ at 2026 Box Office

No franchise has ever dominated the box office quite like the Marvel Cinematic Universe did in the 2010s.

From 2010 to 2019, the superhero films collectively grossed over $18 billion worldwide. Much of that came from the four Avengers movies, which saw Marvel’s biggest heroes come together for massive crossover events. But since the release of Avengers: Endgame, the Phase Three finale that wrapped up many of the original heroes’ storylines, Marvel has struggled at the box office, at least relative to its past success.

Now, more than seven years later, Marvel is gearing up to release its next team-up movie: Avengers: Doomsday. The upcoming epic is expected to unite some of the biggest names in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and has already drawn comparisons to massively successful crossover events like Infinity War and Endgame. Moreover, the film’s antagonist, Dr. Doom, will be played by none other than Robert Downey Jr., the actor who helped turn the MCU into a household name through his portrayal of Iron Man.

But despite the excitement surrounding the project, Polymarket traders currently do not believe the film will finish as the highest grossing movie of 2026. Instead, bettors are overwhelmingly backing another Marvel project: Spider-Man: Brand New Day.

At first glance, the skepticism surrounding Doomsday might come as a surprise. The Avengers franchise has historically been one of the most dominant brands in Hollywood history, even rivaling the Avatar universe. Early online discussions about Doomsday predicted that the movie could mark a return to Marvel’s box office dominance after several uneven years for the studio. Some fans even believed the film had a legitimate chance to challenge Endgame as one of the highest grossing films ever made.

But over the last several months, prediction market sentiment has shifted sharply in favor of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. This is due to several factors. The biggest is that Spider-Man remains the most popular Marvel superhero in the world, helped in part by the success of Sam Raimi’s trilogy in the early 2000s. The previous Spider-Man movie was also a massive success in its own right, earning nearly $2 billion at the box office. When considering that the trailer for the new Spider-Man movie reportedly received nearly 800 million views in its first 24 hours, it is not difficult to understand the hype surrounding it.

Polymarket Bettors Likely Taking Avengers: Doomsday Release Date Into Account

There is also the timing advantage for the Spider-Man movie. Tom Holland’s fourth leading film in the MCU is set to release on July 31, virtually guaranteeing that its entire theatrical run will take place during 2026. Conversely, the new Avengers movie will not debut until the middle of December.

Polymarket’s rules on this wager dictate: “This market is about the movie’s domestic calendar gross in 2026 – dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie’s gross.”

Right now on Polymarket, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is projected to be the highest grossing movie of 2026 with roughly a 70% chance, while Avengers: Doomsday sits far behind at around 12%. Just a few months ago, the gap between the two films was much smaller, with some traders viewing the race as nearly even.