29-Year-Old Star to Upset Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor Oscar, Market Projects

It’s November, so the Hollywood award season is ramping up.

Movie lovers are already predicting who will take home the next round of Academy Awards in early 2026, and there might be an upset in the Best Actor category.

Leonardo DiCaprio has received rave reactions for his performance as the revolutionary Bob Ferguson in One Battle After Another. Movie lovers have hailed it as one of the best performances of the year (and it inspired a load of Halloween costumes). However, DiCaprio’s second Oscar might have to wait, according to current odds on the prediction market Kalshi.

DiCaprio’s performance has a 29% of netting him an Oscar, as of press time. However, the frontrunner is a 29-year-old actor whose movie has yet to be released to wide audiences.

Per Kalshi, Timothée Chalamet is currently the leading favorite to win Best Actor at the next Academy Awards ceremony. Chalamet’s performance in the upcoming ping-pong drama Marty Supreme is stirring up strong buzz ahead of its Dec. 25 release. This buzz has raised his chances of winning the Oscar to 56%.

This would be Chalamet’s first Oscar, following unsuccessful campaigns for his nominated performances in 2017’s Call Me By Your Name and 2024’s A Complete Unknown.

Other actors in the running include Michael B. Jordan (6%, Sinners), Jesse Plemons (6%, Bugonia), Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (4%, The Smashing Machine) and Wagner Moura (4%, The Secret Agent).

With how wild awards season can get, there’s no telling where the odds will land as we approach March 15, 2026. However, for now, it looks like Timmy has the advantage over Leo.