Indianapolis Colts’ Updated Super Bowl Odds After Pair of Trades

On Tuesday, the Indianapolis Colts waived the white flag on their 2026-27 season.

With just two wins in their first seven games and 10 games remaining, the Colts began selling off assets in an attempt to build for the future. Gone is multiple-time All-Pro guard, Quenton Nelson. The lineman was traded to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for a third-round pick in the 2027 Draft and a fifth-round pick in 2028.

Nelson had spent his entire NFL career with the Colts, since being drafted by the franchise sixth overall in 2018. The 30-year-old will be a free agent after this season and seemed unlikely to resign in Indy, considering the team’s made just one playoff appearance in the last seven years and will likely miss out on the postseason again this year.

Joining Nelson as a now ex-Colt is defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, a three-time Pro Bowler. Buckner was traded to the San Francisco 49ers – the team that drafted him in 2016 – on Tuesday afternoon, just hours after Nelson was sent to Seattle.

In exchange for Buckner, Indianapolis received a fourth-round pick in April’s Draft. Like Nelson, Buckner is slated to be a free agent after the season and likely would not have resigned with the Colts.

🚨 Colts fire sale: 8x Pro Bowl G Quenton Nelson to Seahawks for 2027 3rd + 2028 5th, DT DeForest Buckner back to 49ers for 2027 4th. 2-5 Indy punting early. #Seahawks #FTTB pic.twitter.com/A9Ad5DQKzz

— SportsNSocial2 (@SportsNSocial2) October 28, 2026

The pair of Tuesday trades allowed the Colts to restock their cupboard of draft selections, which lacks a first-round pick due to last season’s trade for Sauce Gardner (their first-round selection was sent to the New York Jets).

Trading running back Jonathan Taylor, wide receiver Josh Downs, and other veteran Colts would not be unexpected at this point. In fact, it’s seemingly likely as the franchise has clearly punted on the remainder of this season with an eye toward the future.

Polymarket doesn’t disagree. Traders on the site also seem to be of the opinion that Indy isn’t interested in winning in ’26-27. They’re currently being traded at less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Those odds have actually dropped since April, when those wagering on Polymarket were slightly more optimistic, giving the Colts just under 2% odds to win it all.

Currently, the San Francisco 49ers (14%) and Buffalo Bills (12%) have the best Polymarket odds.

As for the Colts?

Well, at least they have a few more draft picks to use this spring.

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