The 4 Most Likely Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winners, According to Current Winter Olympics Odds

February 16, 2026, 10:00pm

We are just over a week away from the premier Winter Olympic event: the men’s hockey gold medal game.

With the single-elimination tournament starting on Tuesday, let’s take a look at the three favorites (according to Polymarket) to take home gold in Milan.

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1. Canada

Connor McDavid, No. 97 of Canada, center, celebrates his goal with teammates Cale Makar, No. 8 of Canada, and Tom Wilson, No.43 of Canada, during the Men’s Preliminary Group A match between Canada and France at the 2026 Winter Olympics on Feb. 15, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Even though a Canadian team has not won the Stanley Cup in 32 years, there should be little shock that the Canadian national team is the most likely gold medal winner.

With 56% odds to take home gold in Italy, Canada is far and away the odds-on favorite in the 2026 Olympic Games. That’s for good reason, as the Canadians have both the top-end talent and the deepest roster.

It starts and ends with Connor McDavid.

McDavid (or McJesus, as he is playfully regarded by many hockey fans) is the best player in the world right now. It takes a lot of talent to draw comparisons to Wayne Gretzky, but at 29 years old, McDavid has already made his mark as one of the best to ever do it.

However, this team is more than just one star. Fellow MVP winner Nathan MacKinnon is just as good as McDavid. Not to mention the legend that is Sidney Crosby, who has laced up his skates for a final Olympic run as well.

The other 22 players for Canada? They’re all-stars and starters for some of the best NHL teams in the league.

2. USA

In Milan, Italy, on Feb. 15, 2026, Team USA celebrates after a goal during the ice hockey match between the United States of America and Germany on day nine of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milano Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena. (Photo by Mattia Martegani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

With a 29% chance to take home the gold, the U.S. is still a team that needs to be reckoned with.

It might shock the average viewer to learn that America hasn’t won gold in men’s hockey since 1980, in the famous “Miracle on Ice” game. But this isn’t your father’s Team USA.

Perhaps not as star-studded as Canada’s roster, the U.S. team is full of high-quality, elite players who can beat anyone. Quinn Hughes is widely considered the best defender in all of hockey right now. Connor Hellebuyck, the Jets’ goalie, is also considered the best goalie in the sport.

It’s not all defense for the U.S. Jack Eichel is an exciting star who can complement a growing legend like Matthew Tkachuk well.

Still, even with those stars, questions have emerged concerning America’s offensive efficiency when it comes time to play teams like Canada and Finland. This is a huge reason why America’s odds (based on Polymarket) have dropped over 15% in the last week.

3. Finland

Esa Lindell, No. 23 of Team Finland, celebrates after the victory in the Men’s Preliminary Group B match between Finland and Italy on day eight of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena on Feb. 14, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

With a surge of odds over the weekend, Finland has now entered the conversation to take home the gold after crushing Italy 11-0 on

However, it’s still an uphill battle for the team. Polymarket gives them an 8% chance to win it all.

4. Sweden

Lucas Raymond, No. 23 of Team Sweden skates in the third period during the Men’s Preliminary Group B match between Sweden and Slovakia on day eight of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena on Feb. 14, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

While it is unlikely that any team besides the U.S. or Canada wins, greater upsets have happened.

Sweden, with a 5% chance to win gold, looks to be one of those underdog stories. This team is full of NHL stars, led by the offensive powerhouse duo of Lucas Raymond and William Nylander.