The 3 Countries Most Likely to Win Olympic Gold in Men’s Curling, According to Current Odds

February 16, 2026, 10:32pm

We are quickly approaching one of the most exciting events of the Winter Olympics: curling.

Do we understand all of the rules? Not really. Is the pressure palpable? You bet. Are tensions flaring up? More than you could know. Let’s take a look at the top three likely gold medal winners, according to Polymarket.

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1. Switzerland

Yannick Schwaller of Team Switzerland competes during the Round Robin match between Team Switzerland and Team Czechia on day seven of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic games at Cortina Curling Olympic Stadium on February 13, 2026 in Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy. (Photo by Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)

Switzerland sits atop the odds board with a 35% chance to take home the gold. The Swiss are perennial contenders and are seeking their first curling gold medal since the 1998 Games.

Switzerland is led by Yannick Schwaller, widely considered one of the best tacticians in the sport. For Schwaller, it’s not about scoring flashy points; it’s about winning by any means necessary. Switzerland’s strength lies in precision and teamwork, and they excel in late-game strategy where one stone can decide everything.

2. Canada

Canada’s Marc Kennedy delivers the stone during the curling men’s round robin between Czech Republic and Canada during the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Cortina Curling Olympic Stadium in Cortina d’Ampezzo on Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP via Getty Images)

Just behind Switzerland is Canada, with a 30% chance. Historically, Canada has been the undisputed curling powerhouse. However, the neighbors to the north haven’t taken home gold in over ten years, after their three-peat as champions.

Canada has been in the spotlight recently for all the wrong reasons. Earlier this week, controversy emerged after the Swedes raised concerns over potential double-touching violations during stone releases. Some members of Team Canada reacted angrily, though video evidence supported the Swedish complaints. Officials issued no penalties, but the incident added tension to the competition.

Despite the controversy, Canada’s talent and experience remain unmatched. Their depth and adaptability make them one of the toughest teams any country can face.

3. Great Britain

Bruce Mouat of Team Great Britain looks on during the Men’s Round Robin match between Team Great Britain and Team Norway on day ten of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic games at Cortina Curling Olympic Stadium on Feb. 16, 2026 in Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Great Britain rounds out the top three with a 26% chance to win gold. The Brits might not strike the average viewer as a curling powerhouse, but over the last five years, they have turned their program into one of the best. Maybe for good reason, as all curling roots come from Scotland.

Led by Bruce Mouat, Great Britain has been the top team so far. Mouat excels at shot calling and keeping his team calm under pressure. But they are narrow favorites, with two more traditional leaders close behind.

With the top three odds separated by just nine percentage points, curling may end up being one of the closest and most dramatic finishes of the entire Winter Games.