The era of internet TV is about to make traditional television a thing of the past.
Netflix and Amazon’s programming investments are now in the same league as major TV titans like HBO, Turner and CBS. At $4.9 billion and $2.6 billion respectively, the streaming services combined investments outrank the entire country of Germany, who only spends a measly (in comparison anyway) $7.3 billion on programming.
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“The levels of investment we are seeing from Netflix and Amazon are only topped by Disney ($11.84 billion) and NBC ($10.27 billion),” said Tim Westcott, senior principal analyst at IHS Technology.
But does this really mean Netflix and Amazon, and potentially any future streaming services, are going to put linear TV services out business for good? Let’s look at the numbers.
In 2015, online platform investment more than doubled from the previous year, jumping from 20 new series up to 41. But 2014 was also an impressive year and saw a near doubling as well, going from 13 new series from the previous year to 20.
So let’s say the release of new online series continues at the same rate, practically doubling every year. That means in 2016 we should see approximately 80 new series, 160 in 2017, 320 in 2018 and so on. That would be a pretty impressive feat, but based on what we’ve seen from Netflix and Amazon thus far, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
Now let’s look at the trend of linear TV production. So far this year 113 basic cable scripted shows have been released. In 2015, there were a handful more, 148 to be exact. Granted, there’s a little time left before the year’s end, so let’s just be generous and say linear TV production meets its own quota from last year. Okay, so that basically makes them stagnant.
In other words, new online series are being released at literally a logarithmic rate, while linear TV is barely treading water.
Westcott says “it’s premature to declare that the era of linear TV is already over,” but the numbers seem to speak for themselves.
To the average consumer, it’s not like it really matters though. We’ll still get our favorite shows beamed directly to our devices in high definition. But to streaming providers like Amazon and Netflix and traditional major cable networks like FX and AMC, the competing modalities of online versus plugged in will mean the difference between soaring to the front of the pack or going bankrupt.
Only time will tell what the future of television will look like; if one method will reign supreme or if the world has room for both. Until then, sit back, relax and enjoy the show.
[ H/T Variety ]
