3 Players Most Likely to Win Super Bowl MVP, According to Current Odds

As we get closer to Sunday, fans aren’t just talking about who will win the game, they’re betting on who will win Super Bowl MVP.

Perhaps no site paints a better picture of who is going to win the MVP than Polymarket, which currently lists odds (that you can bet on) for each possible winner. Let’s break down the top three. 

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16%)

At third, and by far the best value for potential Super Bowl winners, is Seattle star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Njigba, the sophomore wide out from Ohio State, just took home of the offensive player of the year award. In the NFL, this essentially means he was the best offensive player in football excluding quarterbacks. 

At just 16% chance to win according to Polymarket, betting on Njigba to win would pay out $1.75 for every dollar you risk. The Ohio State product has been the playmaker for the Seahwks that has made their offense elite all year long. With 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns in the regular season, it’s become evident to all that he has to have a good game for Seattle to win. Not to mention, 5 of the last 6 non QB Super Bowl MVP’s have been WR’s. 

2. Drake Maye (26%)

Drake Maye, the 23 year old sophomore stud, comes in at second with a respectable 26% chance to win the MVP, per Polymarket. There are many arguments that would suggest Maye is taking home the award. For starters, he lost the regular season MVP by just two votes, barely losing to Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford. This would indicate he was, at worst, the second-best player in all of football this season. 

Maye’s best argument comes in the form of team reliance. Whereas Seattle has been able to win games when Darnold has not played his best, the Patriots simply can not win if Maye does not play like his normal self. This means that if New England is going to win the game, their franchise QB is going to have to do it for them, positioning him perfectly to take home the MVP if the Patriots can pull it out. 

1. Sam Darnold (44%)

The most likely Super Bowl MVP right now is Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold. With a 44% chance to win via Polymarket, Darnold is far and away the most likely player to take home the league’s most prestigious award. 

This is the case for a few reasons. Firstly, of the last 20 Super Bowls, the winning QB has won the MVP 14 times. This already puts the starting quarterbacks for both teams at a huge advantage. Consider the fact that Seattle is expected to win, and Darnold is a clear, logical choice to be the Super Bowl MVP favorite.