Odds of ‘Michael’ Being the Highest Grossing Movie in 2026 Are Slim, Polymarket Traders Say

Few films in recent memory have generated as much anticipation as Michael, the musical biopic that depicts the first half part of Michael Jackson’s life.

The movie has been hyped for several years ever since it was greenlit by GK Films and the Jackson estate. More so, fans have been especially eager to see the film since it was announced that Jackson’s own nephew, Jaafar Jackson, would be playing the superstar. But despite the excitement, Polymarket traders are becoming increasingly skeptical that the film will end 2026 as the highest grossing movie in the world.

For a while, optimism around the project was sky high. The combination of Jackson’s undeniable legacy, his still hardcore fan base, and the continued popularity of musical biopics, starting with Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019, led many to believe the film was destined to become a cultural phenomenon. Early projections from fans online even compared its potential to blockbuster hits like Avatar and Top Gun: Maverick, both billion dollar franchises.

But over the last several months, confidence appears to have faded considerably.

The biopic is nearing the end of its theatrical release, as it is projected to leave theaters by late May or early June. With the movie nearing three weeks in its theatrical run, earnings are expected to drop off dramatically. That means the current box office total of around $570 million is expected to be close to the final total.

While over half a billion dollars is a great return for any movie, it is widely expected to not be enough to make Michael the top earner at the 2026 box office.

The major issue is the increasingly crowded and highly anticipated 2026 release calendar. Several franchise films are expected to hit theaters around the same time, as well as highly anticipated arthouse films, creating stiff competition for ticket sales worldwide. While musical biopics have proven successful in recent years, many analysts believe it is difficult for a non franchise film to outperform major superhero and science fiction releases on a global scale.

Right now on Polymarket, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is projected to be the highest earning film at the 2026 box office with a 61% chance. Another Marvel movie, Avengers: Doomsday, is in second and is set to release later this year. Those are followed by a string of animated family films, including The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as well as Toy Story 5. Not to mention, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is also expected to be a summer blockbuster.

There is also the fact that Michael Jackson has become a polarizing figure ever since sexual abuse allegations were made against him. Documentaries on HBO and other streaming services have shined a spotlight on alleged victims who have come forward with their personal stories of Jackson’s inappropriate behavior. This may have caused a reduction in the total revenue the biopic could have made.

With all that said, Michael currently has only a 1% chance on Polymarket to claim the top spot at this year’s box office. With little time left in its theatrical run, it seems all but certain that Michael will not finish as the highest grossing film of 2026.