Polymarket Bettors Now See ‘Super Mario Galaxy’ Losing to Marvel Movies as Its Box Office Run Winds Down

For much of 2026, it looked like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was destined to dominate the global box office.

The Mario Bros. sequel exploded out of the gate following its early April release. Bolstered by a star studded cast that includes Chris Pratt, Ana Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day and Jack Black, the film quickly became the highest grossing movie of the year. By early May, the movie had already crossed roughly $922 million worldwide, cementing itself as one of the biggest theatrical successes in recent memory.

Following the undeniable success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie in 2023, many fans believed Nintendo had a Marvel-like multi-billion-dollar franchise ready. The Mario franchise remains one of the most recognizable entertainment brands in the world, and the sequel benefited from years of anticipation from both longtime fans and younger audiences alike.

And for a while, Polymarket traders agreed.

Earlier this year, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was easily Polymarket’s betting favorite to finish 2026 as the year’s highest grossing film. The flick also had a major timing advantage. Releasing in early April allowed the Italian plumber to dominate theaters for weeks before many of the year’s biggest blockbusters arrive. With relatively little direct competition during much of its theatrical run, the film quickly built a massive lead over every other 2026 release. Even now the movie is expected to clear a billion dollars by the end of its run. 

But despite the historic start, prediction market sentiment has shifted sharply in recent weeks.

Right now on Polymarket, bettors overwhelmingly favor one of two Marvel movies to overtake Mario by the end of the year.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is currently the runaway favorite to finish as 2026’s top grossing movie with roughly 70% odds, while Avengers: Doomsday sits in second at around 12%. Meanwhile, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has fallen to roughly 8% odds despite already being close to the billion dollar mark.

One major reason for the shift is the growing hype surrounding Marvel’s upcoming slate. Spider-Man: Brand New Day has reportedly generated enormous online engagement ahead of release, with trailers drawing hundreds of millions of views across platforms within their first 24 hours. The previous Spider-Man film, No Way Home, earned nearly $2 billion globally, leading many fans and analysts to believe the character still has unmatched box office potential.

As mentioned earlier, one must also consider that while the Mario sequel was a great success, there is little room left for growth as it enters its 7th week in theaters. While the film is still expected to comfortably cross the billion dollar mark, its theatrical momentum has started to slow just as anticipation for Marvel’s biggest releases ramps up heading into the summer and holiday seasons.

Of course, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie remains one of the biggest success stories in Hollywood this year. Few films would ever be considered disappointments after earning more than $900 million globally. But according to current Polymarket odds, bettors increasingly believe Marvel, not Nintendo, will ultimately claim the top spot at the 2026 box office.