Will ‘The Breadwinner’ Gross More Than $10 Million Its Opening Weekend at the Box Office?

Nate Bargatze’s feature film debut The Breadwinner arrives in theaters Friday, May 29 — conveniently timed for summer break commencement.

Sony is hoping parents and their children will head to theaters to see the family-friendly comedy starring the ever-popular Bargatze as a breadwinner husband who switches roles with his wife (Mandy Moore) after she lands the Shark Tank deal of a lifetime. He struggles to adapt as a stay-at-home dad to their three young daughters. Will Forte, Kumail Nanjiani, Colin Jost and Zach Cherry round out the cast.

The movie is opening against A24’s horror film Backrooms, Focus Features/Studio Canal’s D-Day thriller Pressure, Black Bear’s crime movie Tuner, and Lionsgate thriller The Furious.

The movie is tracking to open with a $10 million opening weekend, according to The Town podcast host Matt Belloni.

Though that prediction is far from the days of Adam Sandler and Will Ferrell’s huge box office opening weekends (for example, Big Daddy grossed $41.5 million during its opening weekend in 1999, Grown Ups opened to $40.5 million in 2010, Talladega Nights opened to $47 million in 2006, and Kicking and Screaming opened to $20 million in 2005), the industry landscape has drastically changed since the heyday of the comedy movie star.

Sony is banking on Bargatze’s reign as one of the most popular comedians of today’s day and age to secure the bag. Will it be enough?

Traders in the prediction market are cautiously optimistic, with the majority of Polymarket bettors on the “Breadwinner Opening Weekend Box Office” scenario putting their money on an opening weekend that makes more than $7 million domestically.

In fact, 42% of Polymarket bettors currently think the movie will make more than $7 million. 34% say it will make somewhere between $6 million and $7 million, while 19% think between $5-6 million, 20% predict between $4-5 million and 5% predict less than $5 million.

Box office aficionados will have to wait and see how The Breadwinner does this weekend.