Iron Man 3: What If Robert Downey, Jr. Really Is Done?

For quite a while now, there's been discussion of how many more films Robert Downey, Jr. and Gwyneth Paltrow will appear in as Tony Stark/Iron Man and Pepper Potts. With both of their contracts currently expired and no clear path forward for an Iron Man 4 (the Phase II slots are already spoken for and even Phase III is starting to get crowded), it seems likely that if we see him come back, it might be in Marvel's The Avengers 2. After that--who knows? It's difficult to guess how committed he is to the role, how desperate Disney would be to get him back, and how long he can continue to undertake very physical shoots as he gets older (not to mention the fact that superheroes eventually have to be de-aged so as not to look 55). If Robert Downey, Jr. didn't come back for more movies--if he's either done now, or were to be done after Avengers 2--what would that mean for the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe? Well, first of all--they'd have to figure out a way to make things revolve less around Iron Man. If Rhodey were to be used--either as Iron Patriot or as a stand-in Iron Man after the end of Iron Man 3--it's distinctly possible that could be used to bridge the existing Iron Man franchise to whatever comes next with a minimum of fuss. Don Cheadle, having been brought in later than the rest of the principal Iron Man cast, almost certainly has at least one additional movie on his contract, and reports coming out of screenings are that Iron Man 3 plays him up nicely, setting him up to do more in the future if needed. The role that Tony filled in the first Avengers movie--that of the tech guy, strategist and all-around big brain of the team--would have to be reassigned, and there's frankly nobody out there right now who feels equipped for it. Sharon Carter, being introduced in Captain America: The Winter Solder, is an outside possibility, but it's hard to picture the team taking orders from someone who has to answer to Fury and others, and not going straight to Fury instead. Plus, while she's a great strategist, Sharon has never been depicted as a genius, and it's difficult to imagine Emily VanCamp pulling off someone with enough screen presence to stand down Thor. The obvious choice is Bruce Banner; he doesn't have the same kind of groundbreaking, bombastic, experimental genius that Tony had, but he'd be good enough to close the gap in The Avengers 2, and after that the team could star to fall back on Hank Pym once he's presumably introduced in Ant-Man (rumors that the lead character will be Eric O'Grady seem to be pretty much just Internet fantasizing). With somebody else in the armor and somebody else filling Tony's role with The Avengers, it would buy Marvel time to recast Tony Stark--substantial time. If a new Iron Man solo film wasn't planned until Phase IV, and if rumors that there might not even be a third Avengers film on the slate for Phase III have any weight, it would be 2017 or 2018 before Tony even needed to appear again. And as we've seen with The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel, five years or so is a lot of time these days. There's also the future of the franchise, and Downey's legacy, to consider. There have been persistent rumors that Marvel is interested in eventually adapting Civil War to film, which would require a Tony Stark with a strong presence--but it would also run the risk of alienating fans away from his character if it wasn't pitch-perfect. That's what happened in the comics, with many fans viewing him as a traitor to the rest of The Avengers and unambiguously the villain of the story. It was the phenomenal, surprising success of Robert Downey, Jr.'s Iron Man film that brought the character back from the brink. Trying to bring that same story to film could easily queer the goodwill fans have for Downey and company, whereas the next actor is likely facing an uphill battle anyway. They might turn out to be the George Lazenby of the Iron Man franchise (going with Marvel Studios President Kevin Feige's comments that they could recast the characters like James Bond), lasting only one movie before the studio decided to replace them in a bold move. The possibility of Civil War could compound the actor's problems, but the other side of that is that if that story gets attached to a new actor and it works, the actor will have established themselves powerfully within the Marvel Cinematic Universe. If they try it and it fails, the new actor would likely take a chunk of the blame (not unlike George Clooney) and shield the franchise from fallout once he's gone. Meanwhile, Downey would retire the reigning champion of superhero movies, arguably the most universally-acclaimed actor in any such film since Christopher Reeve, which opens up the possibility of Marvel continuing to use him in some capacity later on.